By; BAshir Bello, Abuja
With INEC’s final list clearing 18 presidential tickets for the January 16, 2027 election, the race has narrowed to four major contenders in public discourse: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of the ADC, Peter Obi of the NDC, and Ambassador Aliyu Bin Abbas of the ADP. Here is a fact-based assessment of their chances:
1. BOLA AHMED TINUBU – APC (Age 74) – Running mate: Kashim Shettima (59)
The incumbent. INEC lists him as APC flagbearer seeking a second term.
Strengths: Power of incumbency, control of federal structure, APC governors, and a tested campaign machine. Retains Shettima to lock the North-East.
Weaknesses: Anti-incumbency over economy, insecurity and cost of living. At 74, age and health remain campaign issues. Must defend his record, not just promise.
Path to Victory: Hold the South-West and North-West, keep North-Central competitive, and rely on split opposition votes in the South-East and South-South.
2. ATIKU ABUBAKAR – ADC (Age 79) – Running mate: Rotimi Amaechi (61)
Former Vice President, now contesting under the African Democratic Congress after leaving PDP.
Strengths: Most experienced, vast northern network, and a southern Christian running mate in Amaechi to balance religion and region. The Atiku-Amaechi ticket is seen as a bridge between North and South-South.
Weaknesses: At 79, he is the oldest among the top four, and this will be his 7th presidential attempt, which fuels voter fatigue. The ADC is a smaller platform than PDP/APC and faces legal disputes over its leadership structure.
Path to Victory: Must sweep the North-East, dominate North-West with Amaechi’s help in South-South, and peel northern votes from APC.
3. PETER OBI – NDC (Age 65) – Running mate: Rabiu Kwankwaso (69)
INEC confirms Obi as candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), paired with former Kano governor Kwankwaso.
Strengths: Strong youth and urban base from 2023, credible management image, and now a strategic northern alliance. The Obi-Kwankwaso combination unites two massive voter blocs – Obidients in the South-East/South-South and Kwankwasiya in Kano and North-West.
Weaknesses: NDC is a relatively new platform with limited nationwide structure compared to APC. Balancing two strong personalities could be tricky.
Path to Victory: Replicate 2023 landslide in South-East, win Lagos and FCT, and use Kwankwaso to flip Kano and deliver 25% in the North.
4. AMBASSADOR ALIYU BIN ABBAS – ADP (Age 44) – Running mate: Chinazam Ike (50)
The youngest of the four. Former aide to Atiku Abubakar, emerged as ADP flagbearer on May 30, 2026 at the party’s convention in Abuja. INEC lists him as ADP candidate.
Strengths: Youth candidacy – founder of National Youth Alliance (NYA), at 44 appeals to 70% under-40 electorate. Northern origin with southern running mate. Clear break from old bloc politics, positioning ADP as alternative opposition platform.
Weaknesses: Least political structure, low name recognition nationally, and faces internal party attempt to substitute his ticket which he publicly resisted. ADP has no sitting governor or federal lawmaker.
Path to Victory: Force a youth revolution vote, dominate social media narrative, and become the compromise candidate if the big three split and go to runoff. His threat is more as a spoiler who could deny votes to Atiku in the North and Obi among youths.
VERDICT:
On paper, it remains a three-horse race between Tinubu (incumbency), Atiku (northern establishment) and Obi (youth alliance + Kwankwaso). Aliyu Bin Abbas is the wildcard – his candidacy tests whether Nigeria’s youth bulge can translate into ballots for one of their own in January.
